DDR3 DRAMs Update in June 2009

Abstract: DDR3 DRAMs, after a long period of floundering about, wondering 'when they would happen', have gained much traction in the marketplace in the past six months. With new efficient and high-performance DDR3 designs in production at all major DRAM makers, they are clearly on their way to "PC DRAM Domination", though today they are still only about 20% of total DRAM shipments. The DDR2-to-DDR3 Rubicon is crossed, though many uncertinaties lie ahead as the industry simultaneously moves through its painful consolidative phase, desperate to restore profitability, and to 50nm processing, across-the-board efficient 6Fsq cells and a hit-and-miss transition to uniform 1.35V operation by all vendors in all applications by the end of 2010. Today's DDR3 take-ups in PCs are 'incrementally faster, definitely lower power'...and are appearing in 2Q's genration of laptop product line refreshes, more than in desktop systems. Power, low power, is increasingly a co-equal driving force for DDR3 adoption.

What has changed since late 2008: As late as 3Q and 4Q08, DDR3 DRAMs could only be found in high-end game PCs, where they were attractive for their higher performance, and where the market could support their higher prices. In early fall, DDR3 DRAMs still cost 2x-4x DDR2, though admittedly, DDR2s were at something of an all time historical low of 60 cents. Today, DDR2 prices have come up a lot, and are now in the $1.05-$1.20 range for 1Gb ($9 or $10 for 1GB DIMM), closing the gap from the bottom. But newer DDR3 designs have also reduced the earlier die-area disadvantages, thus reducing production costs. And DRAM makers seem to have decided, 'If we are shipping $1 with every 1Gb DRAM, it might as well be a DDR3 DRAMs, which has a future...and that Taiwan's price bombers do not have yet to any appreciable degree.'

At the crossover speeds, DDR2 800/1066 and DDR3 1066, prices are very close to one another. At DDR3-1333, there is a mixed and sometimes significant premium for DDR3 compared to slower DDR2s, which, if the history of DDR1 and DDR2 pricing is any guide, will be whittled down to nothing in a few quarters' production and use. DDR3-1600 is still not found in any PCs that we have seen...but for DDR2, recall DDR2-533 was kicked off 3Q04, DDR2-667 took up 1Q06, and DDR2-800 was really a 'post-mid-2008' phenomena (and still growing, displacing -667s)

Low Voltage DDR3: Last year, the industry devised an alternate Low Voltage Roadmap for DRAMs. The standard DDR3 spec called for 1.5V operation, which had been decided nearly a decade ago. The low voltage roadmap agreed on last year calls for a 1.35V option, designated DDR3L, which saves about 20% in power (subject to many other considerations and conditions, of course). But most vendors can hit the performance spec even with this reduced voltage, so it is expected to be adopted widely; all major DRAM makers have 1.35V product and roadmaps; Samsung and Micron announced DDR3L server DIMMs and SO DIMMs a few days ago, for (almost) everyday applications...and it is only a matter of time before "L" comes to dominate DDR3 production. There is also an even more agressive 1.2V discussion and emerging DDR3 (or DDR4) spec, but it is still too remote to forecast the timing and extent of adoption...but the preponderance of heat-spreaders on DDR3 DIMMs should give some indication of where the power problems lie.

DRAM makers have consistently been able to produce the top speed grade at high yields, for DDR1 (>-400 to -600) and DDR2 (>-800/1066 to -2100), so they have wisely been reducing the operaing voltages, for 'green considerations' without compromising premium sales.

For users, this "L" roadmap is 'free' power reduction.

Off the charts, too: While the DDR3 specs are -800, -1066, -1333 and -1600, an additional bin at -2133 is under discussion...mostly aimed at PC makers. However, there is a vibrant market for gamers and overclockers, which offers many other variations...-1800, -2000, and Elpida's fastest-to-date, 2.5GHz 'technology showpiece'. These varieties may calm down in the next twelve months, as the -2133 spec moves forward for affirmation.

For most vendors, DDR3 will really take of with their nom 50nm DDR3 designs, which will be hugely productive (die/300mm wafer) and could be DRAM maker's ticket to profitability in 2010.