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It's the start of a new year. Tomorrow, I'll pick out what I think that the big trends for 2019 are going to be. But today, let's take a look at how my predictions for 2018 fared from my post Nibbles: Breakfast Bytes Predictions for 2018. You can make your own judgment about whether I missed something, but one good measure of whether I picked the right topics, is simply how much I wrote about them in the (roughly) 250 posts that appeared during 2018.
I picked security of being one of the big trends for 2018. To be honest, I cheated since my prediction post came out a couple of weeks into the year. But 2018 started with a story so big that I wrote a second Breakfast Bytes post that day, January 3, What is Meltdown? How Can It Affect Both Intel and Arm? about the Spectre and Meltdown vulnerabilities that had been hiding in plain sight for 15 or 20 years. There was a great panel session about it later in the year, during HOT CHIPS, that I covered in three posts Spectre/Meltdown and What It Means for Future Design 1, 2, 3. Those 3 posts contain a more thoughtful perspective than the post that I wrote in the afternoon of the day I found out about the vulnerabilities. But these weren't the only security stories of the year.
The second time I wrote another Breakfast Bytes post on the same day was also security related. Bloomberg published a story about how Amazon, Apple, and others had extra chips added to their servers by the Chinese. It seemed bogus to me. Bloomberg still hasn't retracted the piece, but everyone who has written about it says that it is false. The pieces was Did the Chinese Really Attach Rogue Chips to Apple and Amazon's Motherboards?
Why You Shouldn't Trust Ken Thompson
Passwords: How Even Your Bank Doesn't Know Your PIN
Passwords: Just Add Salt
Fooling Neural Networks
Spectre with a Red Hat
A Computer Scientist Takes a Look at Mechanical Security
RSA Cryptographers' Panel
Some Real Russian Hacking
Compromising a Fortune 500 Company...Without Hacking a Thing
RSA Wrapup: Song, Darling, Thrun
Spectre/Meltdown and What It Means for Future Design 1, 2, 3.
ERI: Hardware Security Workshop
Google's Titan: How They Stop You Slipping a Bogus Server into Their Datacenter
Did the Chinese Really Attach Rogue Chips to Apple and Amazon's Motherboards?
Automotive is the fastest growing segment of the semiconductor industry. The whole industry is in transition, driven by the move to electric traction, the move towards autonomous driving, millennials owning cars in much lower numbers, and more. Cadence held its first Automotive Summit in November.
CES Keynotes: Cars, Flying Cars, Dancers, Music, Lights...and Sustainability
In Other News, 100 People Were Killed by Cars Driven by People
CDNLive EMEA, Driving to the Future
CDNDrive: ISO 26262...Chapter 11
Legato: Smooth Reliability for Automobiles
Automobil Elektronik Kongress 2018
Trends, Technologies, and Regulations in China's Auto Market
CDNDrive Automotive Solutions: the Front Wheels
CDNDrive Automotive Solutions: the Rear Wheels
Texas Instruments on Automotive Reliability
Automotive Summit: The Road to an Autonomous Future
Automotive Sensors: Cameras, Lidar, Radar, Thermal
AI, deep learning, neural networks—the biggest change in how we program goes under a lot of names.
Linley: Training in the Datacenter, Inference at the Edge
Deep Blue, AlphaGo, and AlphaZero
SEMICON West: The AI Tectonic Shift
Accelerating AI: Past... ...Present and Future
Embedded Vision: Seeing 20,000X Improvement
Overcoming Bias in Computer Vision
Cadence Is MAGESTIC
HOT CHIPS Tutorial: On-Device Inference
HOT CHIPS: Some HOT Deep Learning Processors
David White and Machine Learning
The New Tensilica DNA 100 Deep Neural-network Accelerator
Inside Google's TPU and Google TPU Software
Bagels and Brains: SEMI's Artificial Intelligence Breakfast
Neural Nets Hit the Roofline—Memory for AI
With 7nm in production, 5nm is the "next" process. In some ways, I should have combined this with the next topic EUV, since 5nm requires EUV. Everyone's approach to insertion of EUV is to do a second generation of 7nm with some EUV layers for cost-reduction, to build up experience, and potentially slightly tighter pitches. Then, for 5nm, use EUV from the start.
IEDM Short Course: After 5nm
3nm Cadence and imec
TSMC Technology Symposium 2018
Samsung Foundry Forum: 10, 8, 7, EUV, 5, 4, GAA, 3...
How Low Can You Go?
TSMC OIP Ecosystem Forum
By definition, most of the above posts about 5nm are also, at least partly, about EUV. But there were other times I wrote about EUV more directly.
If It's Tuesday This Must Be Belgium. My First Visit to imec
Imec on EUV. Are We There Yet?
SEMICON 5nm: 7nm Is Just a Dress-Rehearsal
Apart from my post about China inserting (or rather not inserting) chips on everyone's server farm motherboards (see under security above), and my pieces on automotive in China (see under Automotive above), I also covered the Chinese semiconductor industry more directly.
I also came across a great word for people who know very little about China thinking that they can explain it. So maybe I'm guilty of Hansplaining here.
SEMICON China: Me and 70,000 of My Closest Friends
SEMICON China: Is This China's Decade?
The Great Firewall of China
The Economist on Silicon Supremacy
One area that I didn't call out as a prediction was silicon photonics, which I think was a significant omission. Cadence had its first Silicon Photonics Summit this year, and a workshop on the second day (with Lumerical and Mathworks).
Yoga is Passé, the Future Is CurvyCore
Diwali, the Hindu Festival of Lights...and Photonics, the Silicon Festival of Light
An Illuminating Chat with Lumerical's CTO
Tomorrow, my predictions for the major themes for 2019.
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